What do rising temperatures mean for us?

Our planet is undoubtedly getting hotter. Copernicus confirmed that 2024 was the hottest year on record, and in what the Met Office called a ‘sobering milestone in climate history’ we experienced the first year with an average temperature clearly exceeding 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level.

But in what ways will exceeding 1.5 degrees be too hot for us to handle? 

As we see wildfires spread across Los Angeles, California, the issue of global warming is once again making headlines. These wildfires provide us with real-time sobering images of how the climate crisis is already creating an apocalyptic world. California governor Gavin Newsom said the season for wildfires have now become “year-round in the state of California” despite the state not usually seeing fires at this time of year. Scientists at World Weather Attribution have also said that increasing hot and dry climates in the US parches the nature and vegetation which fuels wildfires.

But we are in an ‘era of Global Boiling’, and the impacts of this do not always look as clear as fires sweeping across cities. Interconnected issues such as health, conflict and food security are all impacted by us reaching and crossing the 1.5 degree threshold.

Rising temperatures put public health at risk

Rising temperatures have a very direct and immediate impact on human health. In the UK, the summer of 2023 saw an estimated 2,295 deaths associated with heatwaves according to the government’s own website and a year later, in the summer of 2024, The New York Times reported on the increase in burns from scorching roads and pavements. 

But the indirect impacts are less obvious, and far more extensive. The Wellcome Trust identifies how warmer climates are expanding the areas where insects carrying diseases, such as mosquitoes and ticks, can survive. Alongside diseases like malaria, The World Health Organisation predicts that between 2030 and 2050, climate change is expected to cause approximately 250,000 additional deaths per year from other impacts like malnutrition, diarrhea and heat stress. 

The consequences of heatwaves on air quality are also overlooked. A report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) found that the increase in wildfires and desert dust caused by rising global temperatures was causing measurable harm to human health. TIME published an article revealing how asthma cases and suffering also increase in hotter climates, with doctors noting how increases in the condition happen during the warmer months.

Rising temperatures increase the chances of conflict

Hotter temperatures put pressure on natural resources and communities, exacerbating the triggers of conflict. According to the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) since 2000, the number and duration of droughts has risen 29%. UN World Water Report also reveals that by 2050 around 5 billion people, equivalent to over 60% of the current world population, are expected to live in areas with water scarcity for at least one month per year. 

Whilst often omitted from climate discourse, the interrelationship between the climate crisis and conflict is becoming harder to ignore. Climate change is a threat multiplier for conflict. From water scarcity to threatening food security, hotter climates put the most fragile states in the world under even more socio-economic pressure, which inevitably continues the cycle of violence and conflict.

Rising temperatures impact our food security

Intertwined with both health and conflict, food insecurity is also on the rise due to a hotter planet. Crops like maize, soybeans and rice provide two-thirds of the global population’s caloric intake. Yet a study on NASA’s website shows that with each degree-Celsius increase in global temperature reduces global yields of wheat by 6.0%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%. A warming planet also impacts livestock and fisheries, with morbidity outcomes increasing.

The incremental rise in temperatures makes it difficult to see the cumulative impact it has on food production and distribution. Working with One Acre Fund, Greenhouse conducted extensive research on existing climate and food security data, compiling datasets to create our ‘Global Croptake’ analysis of the threats to global food production and security since the Paris Agreement and into our future.

Can we avoid global boiling?

It is clear that we must prevent global temperatures from rising. To do so, countries need to decarbonize rapidly in order to meet the Paris Agreement target of 1.5 degrees. But this alone will not be enough.

Nature-based solutions provide 1/3rd of the carbon mitigation needed to reach the goals of the Paris Agreement. If we halt and reverse nature loss, we can significantly help to lower global temperatures. Working with organisations like Nature4Climate, WWF, The Nature Conservancy, BirdLife International, Restor, NatureFinance, CISL, WRI and many more, Greenhouse has been advocating for a nature-positive future at the UNFCCC and CBD COPs for the last four years, to ensure governments and the private sector halt deforestation and finance nature-based solutions.

Adapting to a hotter planet is also key for us to be able to not just survive but also thrive. Last year, we worked with the Institute for International Sustainable Development (IISD) to highlight the importance of national adaptation plans. Our animation showcased the interconnectedness of temperatures rising, extreme weather, adaptation and peacebuilding efforts, to encourage governments to reflect this in their planning. Innovative approaches to adaptation in the private sector are also appearing, with businesses like nova paint making housing more heat-resistant by simply painting roofs white and The Global Heat Resilience Service by The Group on Earth Observations equipping cities with the tools and information needed for comprehensive heat risk management.

To find out more about organisations tackling climate change, check out the top environmental campaigns of 2024: